All hope abandon, ye who exit here!

Happy trails or highway to hell?

What’s a safe social distance?

I’ve been discussing this with a few folks away from the blog, and consensus is proving elusive.

So let’s discuss it here.

First, some ground rules: Mind your tone. Respect others’ opinions, even when you disagree. Cite authoritative reports to support your arguments, with links, when possible. That should about cover it.

Keep in mind that this is my little shop here and I’ll run it as I please. Bad behavior will not be tolerated, and I’ll decide what’s bad.

Now then: We’ll start with me, because see previous paragraph.

I may be an unusual case study. I’ve been working from home since 1991, and am presently recovering from a broken ankle, so my contact with the general public has been and continues to be limited.

Herself and Herself the Elder get some analog FaceTime through a closed window.

We haven’t been to a grocery in a week and probably have at least another week’s worth of pretty good eatin’ on hand. I decided against physical therapy for the ankle because that’s just one more point of contact. We have indoor (or backyard) exercise routines we can use to minimize loss of fitness and alleviate boredom. And we haven’t had a dog to walk since Mister Boo shoved off.

That said … since breaking the ankle during a trail run on Feb. 21, I have taken four walks around the ’hood. Herself has done a couple-three runs since becoming a home-worker on March 16. And we have cycled to the Dark Tower four times to resupply Herself the Elder, who has been on a no-shit lockdown for longer than any of yis, because her assisted-living home is full of at-risk elders. No one gets in; no one gets out. Deliveries and pickups are made at the porch.

Now, I consider this fairly reasonable behavior. If I were 100 percent, I might consider longer recreational road rides, but I would be concerned about injury, because clearly I have trouble staying upright on two feet. The hospital doesn’t need to see my dumb ass right now. Trail rides would be right out, because (a) I’m not 100 percent; (2) riding trails poses an even greater risk of injury, and (III) some sections are too narrow and spiky for minimal social distancing.

As for running? Hee, and also haw, etc.

However, I deem the cycling to and from the Dark Tower to be of comparatively low risk. The side streets we use are mostly wide, with light traffic, so social distancing no es una problema, as we say south of the border. And since I’m not exactly crushing it these days, our speeds are low.

But even this may seem like too much personal and societal risk for some of you. So I’m tossing it out there for discussion — what are you doing to help keep yourself and others healthy, physically and mentally?

Tags: ,

49 Responses to “All hope abandon, ye who exit here!”

  1. khal spencer Says:

    We lost one.

    • Patrick O'Grady Says:

      Speaking as a 65-year-old with underlying health conditions, I’d call that a strong argument for staying indoors.

    • Stan Thomas Says:

      Some stats – from here:

      Fewer than 5% of under-50s needed to be hospitalised because of their symptoms, but this rose to 24% for 70-79-year-olds. Similarly, only 5% of under-40s who ended up in hospital required critical care, compared with 27% of people in their 60s and 43% of people in their 70s.
      And “asthma puts you at higher risk of severe illness, regardless of age”.

      Why Italy? Seems to be a case of more old people, more smokers and high incidence of antibiotic resistance.

      So yes, practice extreme hygiene, don’t breath on people and don’t let them breath on you. Wash your hands. Stop picking your nose or biting your fingernails. And wipe down anything that might have been touched by anyone else in the past 3 days – door handles, supermarket carts etc. (just look at everything like it’s covered in poo). Do that and keep doing it and you won’t get this one.

  2. Stan Thomas Says:

    Well, on the subject of cycling, esp. on the road now there are fewer cars – if the visitors here can’t go for a bike ride without ending up in the ER, there’s something wrong with us. Agreed, no more trying for PBs, no more salmoning thru traffic and no more stopping at the cafe. Me, alone, riding up a quite back road in North Wales has to be the very epitamy of social distancing.

    My answer to those who think cycling is a dangerous pursuit is “you probably shouldn’t do it then”. Because, touch wood, I have not suffered anything more than a few bruises and grazes outside a race, and that always been when my ambition exceeded my talent. So I’ll ride my bike, come what may. I don’t see a cop on my roads from one year to the next, so whose going to know? In fact, I suspect the only way they’ll find out is if I’m dumb enough to boast about it on the Internet.

    As and aside, while we have some enforced leisure time, what do folks think of this outsider-looking-in piece?

    • Patrick O'Grady Says:

      I think that Americans, like the eejit we elevated far beyond his ability, are prone to seek simple solutions to complex problems. An attention span measured in nanoseconds doesn’t help. The book that keeps coming to mind is “It Can’t Happen Here,” by Sinclair Lewis.

      Good on you for only crashing while racing, by the way. I’ve had a couple beauties while JRA.

  3. asgelle Says:

    My plan is similar, but a little less restrictive. Baseline, I’m home. Either my house or the girlfriends, and we stay inside except to get the mail. I’ll leave the house to go to the supermarket about twice a week and get takeout once or twice a week to help our favorite places stay in business. As for riding, I will ride on the road five or six times a week. I’ve modified my riding in the following ways: strictly solo, that should go without saying. I’ve altered my routes to stay on roads and bike paths that I know are lightly travelled*. If I come up on another rider I give a very wide berth and accelerate to pass quickly. If a rider passes me, I move as far to the right as possible and slow down so gets by faster. By choosing appropriate routes, this happens very rarely. I’ve shortened my rides so I won’t have to stop to refill water bottles and to minimize exposure. I ride at an easy pace to minimize stress to me and reduce the possibility of a crash. I’m also very conservative descending for the same reason. In my opinion, these rides create minimal risk. My contact with other people is essentially zero, and the chances of my ending up in the ER from these rides is acceptable to me, though I’m interested in other’s opinion.

    *My one dilemma was what to do on Tramway. Do I take the bike path to avoid traffic even though it’s fairly busy, or ride the shoulder to avoid people and face a higher risk from cars? For now, the solution is to not ride on Tramway, but stick to the side streets.

    • Patrick O'Grady Says:

      Yeah, Tramway is a pisser. South of Manitoba the bike path seems a little less heavily traveled than the northbound leg. But the shoulder remains an exercise in situational awareness no matter where you are. Them dudes in the F-666 duallies can’t hear my little handlebar bell.

  4. khal spencer Says:

    I’ve posted some advice on my own blog which folks are welcome to laugh at, jeer, or ignore.

    Basically minimize your exposure to risk that might land you in an ER and don’t bike, jog, or walk where the places are crowded with others biking, walking, or jogging. Minimum time exercising to keep from going batshit crazy and getting into a brawl with your spouse. And all the stuff Patrick suggests.

    Now is the time for a lot of preoccupation with the situation and preoccupation or not paying attention to what is in front of you can result in a crash or accident. All of my time spent in casts or on the surgeon’s waiting list were the results of letting my mind wander when I should have been paying attention. The broken collarbone in 1990 was losing my concentration in a fast, tight Oahu Cycling Team paceline. The AC Separation in 1996 was riding off campus while still mentally composing a National Science Foundation proposal and plowing into a curb and going ass over handlebar.,Then there was ducking under the garage door on the fly and mounting the bicycle while forgetting that the driveway was full of wet rock dust, thus tearing my rotator cuff in 2016. Its the brain farts that get you.

  5. carl duellman Says:

    i’ve been forced to go to work. there are probably a dozen people here and we have clients coming in for meetings. and on top of that, there are several here who aren’t hand washers. as for recreation, i got in a ride on sunday. i usually ride to work but i’ve been getting to work rather early so i’ve been driving. the occasional dog walk. the gym is closed so my upper body workout is popping a cork on a bottle of wine or squeezing grapefruits for salty dogs. crazy times.

  6. Stephen Newhall Says:

    La Tierra was quite crowded near the trailheads last weekend, then fine once I was on the back side. This weekend I am planning on trying the Caja Del Rio, 100s of miles of dirt road&double track, and more cows than people.

  7. JD Dallager Says:

    Re the physical part of the Q, my bride of 50-plus years and I are thus far staying home, taking 1-hour walks around the neighborhood each day, doing yard work, doing house chores, dancing to our favorite tunes, doing some bike rides around the neighborhood, doing moderate strength training/stretching, and “enjoying” the treadmill and CycleOps trainer.
    For the mental aspect we read (classics, fiction, somewhat technical non-fiction,etc.), listen to music, try (unsuccessfully) to be creative chefs/cooks, do puzzles, sing (like no one hears us), stay in touch w/family and friends via all sorts of media, pass on what we believe to be helpful and relevant Coronavirus tips, and reflect upon the gift of time we’ve thus far been given. Gary Larson’s Far Side (or anyone’s humor and laughter-generating talents, to include the Mad Dog himself) are great!! 🙂
    I also find periodic meditation/reflection to be helpful spiritually. (Hoping for bonus points here, POG!! 🙂 ) E.g. “Once born, we’re already inside of eternity, not preparing for it .” (James Lee Burke) “Embarking upon the Ghost Trail of Life is not a passage as much as a sharpening of our vision.” (Native American shaman)
    Stay safe and healthy Mad Doggers!

    • Patrick O'Grady Says:

      I got out for a half-hour walk yesterday. Maybe a mile or a little more. Hijo, madre. I got a hitch in my gitalong. My mojo’s gone missing. It’s weird how one little busted ankle can take the dip out of your hip and the glide out of your stride.

      May I also recommend revisiting Bill Watterson’s “Calvin and Hobbes?” I have nine books in my collection.

      As for music, we recently watched a 2018 John Prine concert on “Austin City Limits.”

  8. Larry T. atCycleItalia Says:

    I’m gonna (promise) make one more comment about this and that’ll be it. All of you who continue to go outside for exercising, whether it’s currently prohibited or not are a) not helping the efforts to stop the spread of this pandemic b) showing the world that you consider yourself not subject to rules (or suggestions) designed for the greater good.
    I don’t know how many others are out there like you or what country they may be living in, but when your hospitals are full, thousands are sick and the coffins are stacking up, it’ll be then too late to suddenly start being a model citizen.
    Here in Italy (the first liberal democracy to be hit) we are finally (and I hope steadily) seeing the curve bend and the reason it’s bending is because the nationwide quarantine is starting to have the effects the experts predicted.
    Good luck to all of you…because if you’re not going to learn from the Italian example… it’s all you got.

    • Patrick O'Grady Says:

      How are you getting your food and drink these days, Lorenzo?

      • Larry T. atCycleItalia Says:

        I follow the regulations: I carry my signed declaration of why I’m outside. I go out only to a grocery store 1 minute away using my shopping bike and wearing a mask. They control how many are in the store and how close together they are. They have plenty of everything on their shelves. Nobody is hoarding or jacking up prices. The clerks are all masked and gloved. In the last 5 days I’ve been out of the house on just 3 of them.
        The curve here IS (slowly) bending, thanks to the scientists and docs who have convinced the politicians to do what is needed. Best of luck to those who live in places where the politicians won’t do it and/or the citizens don’t understand the need – making luck your only hope.

        • Patrick O'Grady Says:

          Well, it seems to me that regulations aside, you are accepting a certain level of risk. As are we. Eliminating risk entirely is not possible.

          We’re responsible for Herself the Elder, who is 86 years old, frail, and worried. Justifiably so. So we do what we can to make her lockdown bearable. And if we cycle there to do it, that helps make our lives bearable.

          The density out here in the ’burbs is low, and our contacts with others en route almost zero. It’s not what I would call an ideal response to a dire situation, but I don’t see a ton of options available to us short of driving there and back … which in ’Burque likewise involves a degree of risk.

          • Larry T. atCycleItalia Says:

            You accept a certain amount of risk just getting out of bed every morning.
            What I’m trying to get across is the SOLIDARITY thing. It’s like voting: plenty will say “Screw it! My one vote won’t matter” and it won’t in most cases but if enough decide their votes don’t matter, like those folks who stayed home rather than vote for Billary in 2016, we end up with a president like you-know-who.
            If everyone decides it’s just great to hop on their bikes and deliver a bottle of wine to Grandma at the retirement home, you no longer have much of a quarantine.
            By the weekend the USA will lead the world in Covid-19 infections despite having a smaller population than China’s and despite the benefits of multiple examples of how (and how not) to deal with it.
            Winston Churchill once said, “You can always count on the Americans to do the right thing after they have tried everything else.”
            It will likely be too lat by then, but good luck!

          • Patrick O'Grady Says:

            I understand your argument. Mine is that we are showing solidarity, by helping out one little old lady and her assisted-living crew. Yesterday’s visit was to collect her hearing aids and have them repaired so she can hear her caretakers and her children when they call or FaceTime. The staff has plenty to keep them hopping, and the hearing-aid people aren’t making house calls.

            We live in a very low-density area. The roads are wide, you can see people coming a long ways away, and our interactions with other people are at a safe distance. We wave, shout, “How you getting by?” Showing solidarity, you might say.

    • Stan Thomas Says:

      I respectfully disagree. The mechanism for the transmission of this virus is well understood. And staying away from other people does not imply staying inside a building. It is just a lazy way for authorities to impose distancing in the face of some people taking the piss. Common sense needs to prevail and incidents like this need to be condemned:

      There is a question of why Italy has been hit so hard. And the answer seems to be related to three factors: more old people, more smokers and high incidence of antibiotic resistance.

      • khal spencer Says:

        From what I recall of Italy, it is an older population, everyone smoked, and the population density was pretty high. So I don’t quarrel with Larry and agree that in cities, one has to stay prudently alone.

        Stephen Newhall mentioned that on Sunday the La Tierra Trails, which are technically in Santa Fe but quite rural, were cheek to jowl at the trailhead end and empty in the back. Same with the Rail Trail, so weekends are good times to stay home. Today La Tierra trails were pretty empty everywhere so it would be hard to catch a virus unless the jackrabbit I spooked had an infection. Famous last words, of course.

        The governor’s order was stay home except for the minimum requirements for dog walking, enough exercise to not go nuts, and essential trips. On that note as I said elsewhere I am more concerned with possible transmission mechanisms at the supermarket than on the road or trail.

        Fanta Se has an older population and that should concern us up here. I’ve had a few issues best confronted with diet and exercise as well as meds: a genetic predisposition to generate cholesterol if I even look at a donut, high blood pressure when I don’t stay active, and a TIA as a 59th birthday present that scared the shit out of me. The asthma, which was an acute problem on Long Island, has not been a problem since we moved down here as the house in BombTown was often bathed in a cloud of chamisa pollen.

        Believe me, I’ll stay far from everyone but if I bunker down for a long time, I am my own worst enemy.

      • Patrick O'Grady Says:

        Albuquerque is your prototypical Western U.S. “city,” in that it sprawls like a fat bastard in a lounge chair at poolside. So maintaining a safe and sane distance from your fellow citizens — on the streets anyway, out here in the Foothills ’burbs — is pretty easy. We’re not all of us stuffed into a vertical city. We’re spread like butta on a big ol’ tortilla. And to think I wanted to live down by the U, too. Yikes, etc.

        Occasionally there is no sidewalk, but the streets are broad enough to walk in as long as you keep your eyes open for drunks, gangbangers, and cyclists running stop signs, which they will. I walked the ’hood for a half hour yesterday and today and saw bro-brahs in full TdF kit run stop signs at speed both times.

        Everything is a risk. If you leave home to buy grub, you take a chance. If you leave home to get your mom’s hearing aids fixed, ditto. If you leave home to walk around the ’hood, likewise.

        The trick, I think, is to minimize exposure as much as is humanly possible. It’s a tough line to draw, much less walk.

        • Pat O'Brien Says:

          I would suggest you consider your environment and calculate the risk to yourself and others your actions will involve. Use the CDC statistics, along with stats from your state, county, and city for input to your calculations. The CDC map, with its links to states and counties is a big help. Then decide what risk you are willing to take. Here the link, and forgive my numerous comments. I am sitting in front of the iMac too much and need to get off my ass.

        • JD Dallager Says:

          PO’G: Agree. “Everything is a risk”. Some answer the question “What is the meaning of life?” with “Survival and reproduction.” Others respond that “Life is but a brief twinkle of light book-ended by eternal darkness” (Nabokov paraphrased). Each one of us likely has, if willing to consider it, thoughts on that.

          Regardless, viruses and Mother Nature don’t care….nor does evolution and entropy.

          We mortal homo sapiens, with self-awareness and other “creative higher order cognitive abilities” are now challenged to inconvenience ourselves a bit in order to allow us to celebrate the meaning of life we each believe in.

          Sorry…..ended with a preposition there.

          Stay safe and healthy!!!!

      • Larry T. atCycleItalia Says:

        Stan Thomas – Got any FACTS to back up “more old people, more smokers and high incidence of antibiotic resistance.”?
        I know Italy’s 2nd only to Japan on the first one, but can you point me to facts on the other two? I’ll wait……

        • Dale E. Brigham Says:

          Larry, I hope that my wife and I will be your and the good professor’s clients someday soon. That said, I have found some data to back up the assertion that more Italians (19.9%) smoke than do U.S. adults (10.5%), and even a bit more than the OECD nations’ average (18.0%). The report below also cites the aging population in Italy (5th highest of OECD nations) as a challenge to a health care system that is, arguably, superior to that of the U.S. in almost every measure and outcome.

          Here are the stats from OECD:

          Click to access health-at-a-glance-italy-EN.pdf

          Click to access health-at-a-glance-united-states-EN.pdf

          I have personally observed Italian medical professionals and their health care system in action (treating students and faculty on a study abroad program I used to run), and they are top-notch. I would trade the U.S. model for the Italian one in a heartbeat.

          In Missouri, the adult smoking rate (19.4%) is the tenth highest in the U.S., and roughly the same as in Italy. But, Missouri health stats are nothing to be proud of, much less emulate. Nice folks here, but mainly not who you want to be.

          Your (hopefully) future client, Dale in Mid-MO

        • Stan Thomas Says:

          Thanks Dale.

          Here is a useful overview published by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control on antibiotic resistance, with some graphics that bring the point home.

  9. mike w. Says:

    Been the hermit for about a week- no more shopping/errands for me but indulging in short rides on mostly empty streets & avoiding the narrow MUPs where close passes are unavoidable. So far we’re only “advised” to stay in, not liable to strict curfew- yet.

    My biggest worry is that the Executive’s* push to have the War Over By Easter is going to have everything going back to “normal” ‘way too soon & will set up a second wave of infection that will dwarf the current one.

    As someone in the Orange Zone for risk factors, i feel my fears to be justified. i plan to Stay the Hell away from everyone for the duration, and NOT watching the daily pResidential* campaign rally- er, eh, briefing.

  10. DownhillBill Says:

    The Fates have decided to follow up The Year Of The Saddle Sore From Hell with multiple tribulations of the drive train on my one functional bike. If nearly all the gears are not addressable on the next test ride, I may be forced to dig out the pieces/parts of a couple of ancient Schwinn LeTours somewhere in the basement to get something rideable going. My own fault, stopped counting the mileage on the road bike at 45K but have neglected to procure a backup yet. I’ve even been desperate enough to walk a couple of times lately. (The horror!)

    I’m fortunate in that I normally maintain a supply of dust masks (the good ones with an exhaust valve) for polishing, sanding, grinding, changing cat boxes, cutting pollen-laden grass, etc. Discovered this week that if you wear such a mask to a grocery store, say, people will stay further away from you. Also, filtering out the pollen prevents the usual sneezing and hacking which nowadays might result in exile to a leper colony.

    For additional mental stimulation and contemplation, I’m finally reading Daniel Defoe’s “Journal of the Plague Year”, which is a “the more things change, the more they stay the same” experience. Except that we have it a *lot* easier.

  11. Pat O'Brien Says:

    I put a comment in earlier, but it must have gone into the clouds and disappeared. We are staying home, except for walks on little used paths or trails. Went to the grocery and Target today, observing CDC guidelines, are are stocked for a week maybe more. Guitars, movies, HOA presidential duties for the smarter half, Scrabble, and reading, along with a healthy dose of spring cleaning and car detailing keeps us more than occupied. You all stay safe and well. Thinking about it now, this one was a good summary of the other wordy thang!

  12. Dale E. Brigham Says:

    Just got back from riding to the liquor store, which, in Columbia, MO, is deemed an “essential business,” and therefore not subject to closure. Made sure to get only plastic bottles of booze, as I hauled the goods home in a backpack. (Do NOT want or need to have shards of broken glass in my spine in case ride goes pear-shaped.) Observed tons of folks out walking (with and without pooches), as well as few out riding, on our first sunny afternoon,with temps above 50F, in a long time. Our city/county plague closure not only permits, but even encourages, solo outside activity. Must not keep the hill-dwelling Americans cooped up too long, or random violence will surely result. Dale in Mid-MO

    • khal spencer Says:

      Hi Dale

      Have some old friends out your way. Peter and Carol Nabelek. Pete is in the geology dept. at the U of MO at Columbia. Carol might be listed too. Or they both might be retired. Pete and Carol and I were fellow geochemistry grad students at Stony Brook Univ.

      • Dale E. Brigham Says:

        Here’s your buddy, Khal:

        He’s listed as an emeritus faculty member on the Geo. Sci. departmental homepage. I am sure he would love to hear from you.

        I taught my (intro to human nutrition) spring semester classes in the department’s auditorium for over a decade, and I bumped into some of the faculty time to time. Might have met your friend at least once.

        Cheers, Khal! Dale

  13. Herb from Michigan Says:

    Grocery store and pharmacy visit for necessities and that is IT for shopping. Would never consider a “take out” meal of any kind from anywhere!! Trail walks and bike rides on almost vacant rural roads. I grew up seriously ill with a weak immune system. It still is but as an old doc told my Mom when I was a kid “get his ass outside for fresh air every chance you get “. I adhere to that as much as possible and there is NO WAY I’m infecting anyone by doing so now. So if someone by chance sees me walking by their house or biking a country road and thinks I’m being a scofflaw so what? I know that fresh air and exercise has kept me alive through some rough patches. We are not seeing any family or friends until the all-clear gets broadcast.

  14. JD Dallager Says:

    CO Gov. Polis just issued “stay at home” order.

  15. Shawn in the Gorge Says:

    Risk versus reward. If I go out on a casual ride in a rural area where the closest I may encounter another human is two complete road lanes (about 25 feet), then the risk is extremely low of catching the virus. As per what is referenced as a working paper from the Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology at Princeton University said, “The current scientific consensus is that most transmission via respiratory secretions happens in the form of large respiratory droplets … rather than small aerosols. Droplets, fortunately, are heavy enough that they don’t travel very far and instead fall from the air after traveling only a few feet.” Large respiratory droplets are produced from coughing or sneezing.

    I respect the strategy of spreading out the viral infection over time and understand when I am out riding, that I may be perceived as a loose variable in the equation. But I’ve received too much education to rationalize that my residing indoors, at home on a warm sunny day will keep mankind safer. Besides, I currently don’t have a trainer and am way to poor to purchase a Tacx or a Peloton bike trainer.

    Sanity is an important factor during this historic period and the only people who would hear my anthem singing will be the crows flying overhead, the lone coyote wondering what the hell all the wailing is about, and the scrubjays showing up to see what kind of edible scraps may be scattered about. Nope, I’m going to risk the fresh air.

  16. khal spencer Says:

    In case anyone missed it from O’Grady’s last post, apparently the State Police tried to shut Rob and Charlie’s bike shop down in Santa Fe. Charlie, who must be close to eighty, stood his ground. Stay tuned. Go read Stephen Newhall’s post from the previous blog post.

  17. B Lester Says:

    Voila, basement workstation!

    Two cuts of the circular saw to an old piece of plywood. Three deck screws and an old wooden saw horse. Voila, basement workstation!

    All is well except the bandwidth on the company VPN seems insufficient. Had trouble getting in yesterday- this morning its impossible.

    My smarter half is working in her closed door office in downtown Janesville. Two other folks come in (at a distance). The other dozen or so are working from home.

    Our daughter the Scholar begins laptop learning in her final semester in pursuit of her bachelors in molecular and cellular bio next week. I wonder if our local connection can support both she and I at the same time. I also must believe that lab classes are impossible at this distance. I worry that her training might be incomplete, and they’ll just graduate he in May anyway.

    We’ve been taking long walks, as the weather here is southern Wisconsin permits. Today begins a three day stretch of rain. Next week promises high 50’s and sunny, so my road bike and I will be out.

    If you see a guy on a real slick looking all black racing bike going a lot slower than that a bike that should go, shout “hi”. That’ll be me.

    I tried to paste a pic of my improvised workstation. Can’t seem to do it. Oy…..

    • Patrick O'Grady Says:

      A friend reports similar issues. He’s got kids either home from school or coming home and with him and the wife both working remotely it’s become a heavy load indeed for the old CenturyLink DSL. Here it’s just the two of us, unless Miss Mia Sopaipilla is using my iPad Pro to consult her fellow feline overlords while we sleep.

      E-mail your pic and I’ll post it for you. The addy is maddogmedia (at) gmail (dot) com.

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