Fortune-telling, chats, and algorithms

This sunset actually happened. It was not predictive of anything other than the sun setting.

I was wandering idly along the trashy shoulders of the Infobahn this morning, trying to not step in or trip over any particularly toxic bits of debris, when I noticed a newsletter from veteran scribe James Fallows that had gone overlooked in my in-box.

In it, Fallows proposes that cash-poor news organizations invest their limited resources in what’s actually happening now in politics instead of what might happen, “which the reporters can’t know when they’re writing the stories, and which readers will eventually find out anyway.”

For readers, he cites three types of stories that suggest you’ve been lured out of the newsroom and into the fortune-teller’s tent:

  • A story based on polls, which are manufactured “news” for those sponsoring them but only shakily connected to reality;
  • A story based on framing any development in terms of “how this will play” politically, which is the reporter’s guess about what voters will think, and;
  • A story on which candidate has “momentum” or traction” based on the vibe at events.

Predictive stories like these, Fallows says, “are like stock-market picks or the point spread on football games, but with less consequence for being wrong. And if news organizations had limitless time, space, and budgets, you could perhaps say, “What’s the harm?”

Alas, stories like these are also easy and cheap. Any half-bright wordslinger with Internet access and a comfortable chair can shower dubious wisdom upon you from a considerable height, like a buzzard with the runs. Be deeply suspicious of anything slugged “Commentary,” “Analysis,” or “Opinion.” Also, items headlined “Five takeaways from [insert actual news event here].”

However, sometimes the “takeaways” story can contain an actual glimmer of enlightenment. In one such at The New York Times this morning we have the concession — in this case, the fifth of five takeaways — that “Iowa doesn’t mean much for the fall.” This, after wall-to-wall coverage for Christ only knows how long of a non-event that saw 15 percent of registered Republicans (about 110,000 people) turn out to caucus. Thanks for sharing, Lisa, Maggie, and Jonathan.

For my part, I tip my fedora to Fallows and add a prescription of my own: Just because the Internet is endless doesn’t mean a story should be.

I read two things this morning that I knew would piss me off, mostly because I like being pissed off in the morning. That, and two cups of strong black coffee, are the jumper cables that get my heart started.

The first, from The New York Times Magazine, headlined “How Group Chats Rule the World,” was tagged “12 MIN READ.” I won’t link to it. Just because I enjoy spitting coffee into my keyboard and screaming “What the actual fuck?” doesn’t mean everyone does. We must consider the children. Also, cats, houseplants, and the homeowners’ association.

The second, from The Guardian, didn’t give me an ETA. But it was slugged, “The Long Read,” so I knew I was in for it. Headlined, “The tyranny of the algorithm: why every coffee shop looks the same,” this 4,200-word slog should’ve been headlined “I spend far too much time in coffee shops.”

I won’t link to that one, either. If that’s your idea of a good read you can chase it down yourself, or buy Kyle Chayka’s book, “Filterworld: How Algorithms Flattened Culture,” from which it was adapted.

But can you lift this mighty tome to read it? There may not be enough coffee in the shop. Or the world.

20 thoughts on “Fortune-telling, chats, and algorithms

  1. Heard some state repug analyst in New Hampshire this morning on NPR. At least 4 times during the analysis interview he used the word traction based on polling. Three out of three rules broken.

    1. I still support PBS and NPR without question. There is good hard journalism supporting solid news programs on both. The hourly news cast on NPR, and the PBS News Hour, and Morning Edition are examples. I’m a long time member and supporter of Arizona Public Media (AZPM.) Didn’t want to give anyone the wrong impression from my previous comment.
      With that said, it is still easy to overdose on news. You could catch the hourly morning news on NPR, about 10 minutes including local news, and the PBS New Hour at night and be a well informed person. Add in a little BBC for the international news and Bob’s your uncle.

      1. We support NPR and a couple affiliates, KRCC-FM in B-burg and KUNM-FM here in The Duck! City. I forget whether we’re on board with PBS; if not, we should be, if only for “Austin City Limits.”

        We also pay for The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Guardian, The Atlantic, Charles P. Pierce at Esquire, Ken Layne’s Desert Oracle Radio, The Duck! City Urinal, and a couple other outfits that elude me at the moment.

        NPR news seems a good deal softer to me than it was back when I considered it a must-have. Likewise the NYT. Both are likely trying to corral a new herd of customers as we oldsters die off and take our dollars with us. The WaPo seems to be struggling, likely because of its nitwit owner. I turn to the Guardian before the WaPo these days. The Urinal is just wretched. Lots of small-town papers use that shitty website template (Blox CMS) — among them the B-burg Gazette, the Corvallis Gazette Times, and The Arizona Daily Star, all of which have employed Your Humble Narrator — and it annoys me so much that I don’t bother to read their “e-Journal,” which is an electronic version of the paper actually delivered in MeatWorld.

        And yep, it’s easy to overdo it. I mean, sheeyit, just look at the list of sources I just gave you. I check ’em all several times daily. This is why I bang my head on the keyboard.

      2. National NPR is still mostly giving the straight skinny. But we’ve noticed since the Michigan Radio NPR group started allowing donations from criminals like Enbridge, their coverage of oil/gas/chem issues seem to be pretty watered down. Yup, pay to play. Even so, local NPR blows the hell out of any talk radio stations around these parts. I wish that the super rich progressives would STOP making campaign donations and fund public radio and tv so they don’t have to take dirty dough to stay on air. But I suppose that would or does lead to reporting slants as well….
        (Sigh) best to read books, listen to music and Follow the Dog if you want a clear mind. Even if the Dog rants it’s damn good literature and graphic too!

        1. Rarely does one hear “follow the Dog” and “a clear mind” in the same sentence. Herb, did you distill a particularly pow’ful batch of poteen over the holidays? Go easy on that stuff now … it makes the sidewalks softer and a lot of other things too.

          1. I could Bring America Together, Sure (BATS). Ever’ man, woman, and child in This Great Land of Ours (Some Restrictions Apply) would soon be marching in the streets and shouting, “We gotta get rid of that O’Grady guy!”

  2. ‘Morning Patrick … Long ago I decided that what passes for news these days is not actually news. It comes from someone facing a deadline and needs to get some words on the screen. News is what affects what I might do today. Having said that I do enjoy reading your opinions … okay rants. As for what lies ahead for us, may fortune favor the foolish…

    1. Hey, Bruce, good to see you back in The Compound. And you’re right, there’s a lot of what broadcasters used to call “dead air” to fill these days, and nobody’s all that picky about what they use for filler. No time to catch your breath between editions anymore. It’s like trying to read copies of the Sunday paper with a pitching machine throwing them at you.

  3. One of the YouTube channels I subscribe to closes with admonitions to like and subscribe to make the video climb in the algorithm, All Hail The Algorithm!

  4. Sweet Jesus, given current news reports, you are so fucked. I’m glad that I live here at the end of the earth & all we need to do is pull the curtains & say ‘nothing to see here, move along’…

    Please take care out there..

    1. Careful Hurben. You are making it sound too good down there and you might suffer an influx of Ugly Americans as things continue to deteriorate here. Found out our neighbor Canada really doesn’t want us moving in their spare bedrooms unless we 1) have huge assets. 2) pass a mega load of tests, forms, exams and such. Turns out they are trying to keep their country in one piece and don’t want gun-slinging, tax cheating, flag waving dolts pouring in buying up land and driving up the cost of living while screwing each other over. Harumph….like we would do those things…well not every day…..

      1. This shit keeps up, I wouldn’t be surprised if the rest of the world decided to help us with that Wall the MAGA eejits are so fond of. Only they’ll wrap it around the entire country and cover it with a transparent dome made of bulletproof glass. They’ll want to watch what happens, but without it spilling over into their countries. Call it a political Zoo of Weirdness and an object of study for future generations.

        Meanwhile, speaking of the rest of the world, this is a phrase I’d like to hear a good deal less of going forward:

        “A calculated and timely response was necessary to negate a … misperception that an unprovoked, surprise military attack … will not yield a strong but calibrated and swift response.”

    2. I remember Hurben offering up his back yard for some camping. Seems there was also a mention of free ale. If Patrick goes first, the rest of us could just “Follow The Dog.”

      1. Kind of a long drive, and I believe there are some splashy bits between here and there where not even AWD will help. A largish rowboat, maybe? Who’s got the upper-body strength in this outfit?

        1. I got this covered since I still have WAY too many kayaks and standup boards laying around here. But no pedal drive versions. Had one and it was nothing but a weed puller so kelp beds would be a disaster. Now that I think this through, maybe we should pool our credit cards and go in on this beauty to stand a better chance of getting Down Under http://tinyurl.com/3vm2sv8v

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